As South Africa gears up for the 2024 provincial and national government elections, one question on many people’s minds is whether the African National Congress (ANC) will be able to retain power. The Eastern Cape, one of the country’s nine provinces, is traditionally an ANC stronghold, and voter turnout in this province is likely to be a key factor in determining the outcome of the election.
Recent polls suggest that the ANC remains the most popular political party in South Africa, with support ranging between 50-60%. However, the party has been beset by internal divisions and allegations of corruption, and its support base has eroded somewhat in recent years.
In the Eastern Cape, the ANC has been the dominant political force for decades, winning over 70% of the vote in the 2019 national election. However, voter turnout in the province has been lower than the national average in recent years, with just 64% of eligible voters casting their ballots in the 2019 election. This is in contrast to the Western Cape, which has consistently had the highest voter turnout in the country, and where the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has traditionally been strongest.
One factor that may influence voter turnout in the Eastern Cape is the province’s large youth population. The Eastern Cape has one of the youngest populations in the country, with over 40% of residents under the age of 25.
This demographic group has traditionally been seen as more likely to support the ANC, given the party’s role in the struggle against apartheid and its history of delivering social services to disadvantaged communities.
However, recent years have seen a rise in youth activism in the Eastern Cape, with young people organizing around issues such as unemployment, education, and housing. Some of these activists have been critical of the ANC, arguing that the party has failed to deliver on its promises to improve the lives of ordinary South Africans.
Despite these challenges, recent polls suggest that the ANC remains the most popular political party in the Eastern Cape, with support ranging between 65-70%. This suggests that the party is likely to retain control of the provincial government in the 2024 election, although the margin of victory may be smaller than in previous elections.
In conclusion, while the ANC remains the most popular political party in South Africa and the Eastern Cape, it faces significant challenges in retaining its support base. Low voter turnout and the rise of youth activism could limit the party’s ability to win the 2024 provincial and national government elections. However, given the party’s historical significance and its track record in delivering social services, it remains the most likely winner in the Eastern Cape and beyond.
