- Threat of US Tariffs on South African Goods: A potential 30% reciprocal tariff set to take effect from August 1, 2025, threatens South African exports to the US, prompting calls for market diversification.
- Disputed Justification for Tariffs: The US claims the tariffs are justified based on trade data, but South Africa argues that most US imports are duty-free and the average tariff is low, leading to contested interpretations.
- Economic Impact of Tariffs: The tariffs have already caused a significant decline in car exports and pose risks of up to 35,000 job losses in the agricultural sector, particularly affecting citrus exports.
- Diplomatic and Strategic Responses: South Africa is engaging in negotiations with the US, submitting a Framework Deal, and exploring alternative markets such as China, India, and the EU, alongside increasing participation in AfCFTA.
- Urgency of Negotiations and Potential Loss of Preferences: Time is critical as the expiration of AGOA on September 30, 2025, could further endanger South Africa’s export markets if tariffs remain unresolved.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has called on South African exporters to diversify their markets amid the looming threat of a 30 % reciprocal tariff on goods shipped to the United States. The tariff is set to take effect from August 1, 2025, unless negotiations yield changes.
Ramaphosa emphasised that the US measure is based on a “contested interpretation” of trade data. South African officials note that 77 % of US imports to South Africa enter duty-free, and the average import tariff stands at just 7.6 %—far below US claims.
Failure to avert the tariffs could trigger widespread economic damage, notably:
- Car exports plunged over 80 % in April and May 2025. South Africa’s automotive sector has sharply lost access to US markets due to tariffs already at 25 % for cars and auto parts.
- The citrus and agricultural industries face up to 35,000 job losses, particularly in Citrusdal, where crops are primarily exported to the US.
To mitigate the fallout, government and industry stakeholders are exploring alternative export destinations, including China, India, and EU markets, and accelerating engagement under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Meanwhile, diplomatic negotiations with the US are ongoing. Ramaphosa’s government submitted a Framework Deal on May 20, addressing issues like trade imbalance, reciprocity, and tariffs. Negotiators remain optimistic that the US may revise the tariff rate downward if talks yield results.
The stakes are high. Losing preferential access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—set to expire September 30, 2025—could further jeopardise South Africa’s key export markets.
Ramaphosa said on a visit to BMW South Africa in Tshwane that time is of the essence. “We are talking… exchanging proposals… negotiations must bear fruit in the coming days,” he urged.
